Matrix scenario-based urban flooding damage prediction via convolutional neural network

Abstract

This study introduces a cutting-edge, high-resolution tool leveraging the predictive prowess of convolutional neural networks to advance the field of hazard assessment in urban pluvial flooding scenarios. The tool uniquely accounts for the high heterogeneity of urban space and the potential impact of complex climate scenarios, which are often underestimated by traditional data-reliant methods. Employing Shenzhen as a case study, the model showcased superior accuracy, resilience, and interpretability, illuminating potential flood hazards. The performance analysis shows that the model can accurately predict the vast majority of urban flood depths, but has errors in extreme flood predictions (depths greater than 35 cm). Findings underscore escalating flood impacts under enhanced scenario loads, with western and central Shenzhen—regions rife with construction—highlighted as particularly vulnerable. Under the most severe matrix scenario (Scenario 25), economic losses are estimated to be about $25,484 million. These commercial and residential hotspots are anticipated to suffer maximum economic loss, with these two areas accounting for 39.6% and 25.1% of the total losses, necessitating reinforced mitigation efforts, especially during extreme rainfall events and high soil saturation levels. In addition, the flooding control strategies should prioritize the reduction of flood inundation areas and integrate functionally oriented land use characteristics in their development. By aiding in the precise identification of flood-prone areas, this research expedites the development of efficient evacuation plans, bolsters urban sustainability, and augments climate resilience, ultimately mitigating flood-induced economic tolls.