Matrix of Vulnerability of Decentralized Areas to Local Energy Security Risks in the Northern and Arctic Zones in the Structural Set of Solutions

Violetta Kiushkina,Boris Lukutin,V.A Stennikov,J.-Y Yoon,P Changwei,S.V Alekseenko,F.-J Lin,C Rehtanz,N.I Voropai,M Negnevitsky,N.A Yusifbeyli,S.P Filippov,B Sereter

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202020906012

Abstract

The tension of the state of decentralized power supply systems in the northern regions, including the Arctic zones, has always been determined by the specific features of their geographical location and the functioning of the economy, which in themselves generate a number of local energy security risks. Nevertheless, both modern and retrospective analysis of energy zones in isolated hard-to-reach territories retains an assessment of the crisis of the situation without the dynamic type of its improvement in ensuring energy security. The aggregate analysis of the formed risk matrix with the heterogeneous nature of their sources, the categorization of the depth of consequences and the probability of implementation, made it possible to obtain a map of local risks of energy security in decentralized regions. On the basis of this, an approach and structure of a set of recommendations for improving energy security is presented in the model of combining the rank of the indicator’s importance, the priority of risks and the expected social, environmental and economic effects in a reasonable option for choosing solutions and recommended measures to ensure a stable state and development of decentralized zones of power supply and energy facilities of territories Northern regions and Arctic zones.

Highlights

The combination of territorial factors and situational factors of autonomous energy forms the structural basis for the model of the local hazard measure - the risks of reducing the acceptable level of energy security (EnS) of the studied territories
Accept that the "oppressed" state of the decentralized energy zone in relation to energy security - a decrease in indicators and abilities that characterize the provision of comfortable living conditions for the population and the functioning of energy facilities, with a certain degree of vulnerability of the EnS level protection associated with negative events
These factors are interconnected with other factors of a different nature that enhance or mitigate the impact of a certain threat, and at the same time, they themselves affect stabilizing others

Summary

Introduction

The combination of territorial factors (specific features of the geographical location of the decentralized zones of the northern regions) and situational factors of autonomous energy forms the structural basis for the model of the local hazard measure - the risks of reducing the acceptable level of energy security (EnS) of the studied territories. These factors are interconnected with other factors of a different nature that enhance or mitigate the impact of a certain threat, and at the same time, they themselves affect stabilizing others

Risk name

Compliance with the level of risk

Economic effect

Strengthening the technological aspect justification