Mathematical representation of short term phosphorus variations in a non-stratified southern lake

Abstract

Total phosphorus concentrations in a small urban hypereutrophic lake undergoing restoration were continually modeled by a modified version of a Vollenweider model for the latter part of a three and one-quarter year restoration period. Results of the modeling effort on Crest Lake were analyzed to determine the compatibility of the basic Vollenweider model with short term applications to highly eutrophic southern lakes. Input parameters such as rainfall and wind speed were considered on a daily basis to see if the model could represent the short term variations observed in the lake. Model simulations were compared to total phosphorus observations collected on the lake at intervals as short as one day. Results indicated that the model can be used as a tool for analysis of system responses on a seasonal basis, but short term variations on the weekly or daily timeframe were poorly represented by the model. Intensive temporal and spatial sampling within the lake verified the validity of the completely mixed assumption for short term applications. Nine sampling locations within the lake, distributed with area and depth, displayed a mean coefficient of variation of only 10.9% when averaged daily for the 54 day intense sampling period. Short term variations were poorly correlated with meterological inputs, suggesting that variability be best represented by a stochastic approach if a practical management tool is desired for situations where variability is critical. The seasonal trends were well represented by the model, reflecting the rapid response of hypereutrophic systems to alterations in phosphorus loadings.