Mathematical perspective of Covid-19 pandemic: Disease extinction criteria in deterministic and stochastic models.

Abstract

The world has been facing the biggest virological invasion in the form of Covid-19 pandemic since the beginning of the year 2020. In this paper, we consider a deterministic epidemic model of four compartments based on the health status of the populations of a given country to capture the disease progression. A stochastic extension of the deterministic model is further considered to capture the uncertainty or variation observed in the disease transmissibility. In the case of a deterministic system, the disease-free equilibrium will be globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, otherwise, the disease persists. Using Lyapunov functional methods, we prove that the infected population of the stochastic system tends to zero exponentially almost surely if the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The stochastic system has no interior equilibrium, however, its asymptotic solution is shown to fluctuate around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic system under some parametric restrictions, implying that the infection persists. A case study with the Covid-19 epidemic data of Spain is presented and various analytical results have been demonstrated. The epidemic curve in Spain clearly shows two waves of infection. The first wave was observed during March-April and the second wave started in the middle of July and not completed yet. A real-time reproduction number has been given to illustrate the epidemiological status of Spain throughout the study period. Estimated cumulative numbers of confirmed and death cases are 1,613,626 and 42,899, respectively, with case fatality rate 2.66% till the deadly virus is eliminated from Spain.