Mathematical modelling with computational fractional order for the unfolding dynamics of the communicable diseases

Abstract

Mathematical models based on computational fractional orders, employed for accurate modelling of complex dynamic systems, can ensure the implementation of various analytical, numerical and computing methods encompassing their applications to emerging and ever-varying real-world problems. Tracking, managing and controlling communicable diseases, one being monkeypox with different features, virological and taxonomic attributes, are oriented towards high-risk groups concerning global public health. This study, accordingly, is devoted to the presentation of the piecewise global derivative model of the monkeypox virus by applying the Caputo and Atangana Baleanu fractional-order derivatives in the partitioned two sub-intervals. The model includes eight compartments with two categories of human and rodent populations. The cases which take part in some sense for the said infection are investigated along with connection in this format. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in the framework of the piecewise global derivative are analyzed for both sub-intervals using fixed point theory. The detailed investigation of the dynamics of fractional-order systems and among many other dynamic features, stability is addressed. The stability of the solution is, thus, examined using the idea of Ulam Hyers concept. For the best fitting values of the parameters, the results are simulated using the monkeypox data. Using the method of Newton polynomial, different piecewise dynamics of each compartment are simulated on different fractional orders and time durations. This kind of a proposed approach is thought to lay a foundation where the transmission takes place to control epidemic events and other infectious medical conditions through vaccines or taking preventive measures to maintain and advance global public health while fully optimizing the clinical care of the diseases to manage complications, alleviate symptoms as well as prevent the long-term sequelae. This analysis also deals with sudden variation in monkeypox dynamics and also for crossover dynamics along with removal of discontinuity through modification of piecewise global analysis.