Mathematical modelling of unemployment as the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in middle-income countries.

Abstract

WHO (World Health Organization) has stamped Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic. This disease has affected most of the population in every aspect. One of those main aspects is the economical burden on the middle class and poor people. To overcome these issues, there should be multi-stage precautions, and awareness was required apart from these, there should be a multi-level posterior effort on facing the challenges that were much needed. In that way, to join the dealing of facing the posterior challenges of this disease, we try to help the society in our way of modelling approach, so that we developed a mathematical model to identify the complexities of the virus and its actual phenomena along with its economical oriented effects and perspectives. During the time of the COVID-19 pandemic situation, millions of employees lost their jobs irrespective of age consideration. More youngsters in many countries have been looking for a new jobs even after facing so much of struggles as the effect of this pandemic. In these facts, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) model is constructed and analysed the outbreak of COVID-19 and its effects on employment. The basic reproduction number R_0 has determined using the next-generation matrix technique. If R_0 le 1 disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If R_0 ge 1, the endemic equilibrium is global asymptotic stability is achieved. To show the analytic findings, numerical simulations were performed. We hope that this work is suitable to control unemployment for all kinds of income populations.