Mathematical modelling of the role of mucosal vaccine on the within-host dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis

Abstract

A mathematical model of the within-host replicative dynamics of C. trachomatis infection and its interactions with the immune system, in the presence of a mucosal vaccine, is presented. Our aim is to estimate the requisite efficacy of an efficacious mucosal vaccine that could promote a stable disease-free state in vivo. Sensitivity analysis was used to quantify how variability in the model parameters influence the value of the disease threshold R0. This shows that the two most important factors to be considered for achieving a disease-free state state in vivo, based on their influence on R0, are the efficacy of the Chlamydia vaccine, and the rate at which the humoral immune response protects healthy epithelial cells from infection. Numerical simulations of the model show that a vaccine with a minimum efficacy of 86% may be required for the in vivo control of Chlamydia burden. Such effective but imperfect Chlamydia vaccine could confer long-term protective immunity to genital Chlamydia infections. Conditions under which lower vaccine efficacies may suffice are also explored.