Abstract
Tectonic earthquakes occur when the stress of Earth’s crust exceeds the instant shear strength. Determining the stress state of a particular area using the equations of mechanics requires knowledge of the boundary conditions, which in most cases seem impossible. This paper proposes the determination of horizontal stresses for the Central Asian territory using the well-known geodynamic hypothesis, according to which the deformation of the Earth’s crust in Central Asia is due to the interaction of the Indian, Arabian, and Eurasian plates. The unknown boundary conditions are reconstructed by solving the inverse problem of elasticity. Some known empirical stresses are used to verify the problem. The solution of the elastic problem makes it possible to set the problem of tectonic creep movements using the Stokes equations. The model is verified by means of horizontal velocity and rotation fields constructed from GPS data. The creep model makes it possible to determine the vertical velocities of the Earth’s crust and supplements the GPS data. The constructed stress state model is used to calculate the variation in the earth’s crust stresses due to earthquakes. A double dipole without a moment is taken as the source mechanism of earthquakes. The boundary element method (BEM) is used for the numerical realization of the model.
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