Mathematical Modelling of HIV-HCV Coinfection Dynamics in Absence of Therapy.

Edison Mayanja,Livingstone S Luboobi,Rebecca N Nsubuga,Juma Kasozi,Raul Alcaraz

doi:10.1155/2020/2106570

Edison Mayanja, Livingstone S Luboobi + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/2106570

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Abstract

Globally, it is estimated that of the 36.7 million people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), 6.3% are coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). Coinfection with HIV reduces the chance of HCV spontaneous clearance. In this work, we formulated and analysed a deterministic model to study the HIV and HCV coinfection dynamics in absence of therapy. Due to chronic stage of HCV infection being long, asymptomatic, and infectious, our model formulation was based on the splitting of the chronic stage into the following: before onset of cirrhosis and its complications and after onset of cirrhosis. We computed the basic reproduction numbers using the next generation matrix method. We performed numerical simulations to support the analytical results. We carried out sensitivity analysis to determine the relative importance of the different parameters influencing the HIV-HCV coinfection dynamics. The findings reveal that, in the long run, there is a substantial number of individuals coinfected with HIV and latent HCV. Therefore, HIV and latently HCV-infected individuals need to seek early treatment so as to slow down the progression of HIV to AIDS and latent HCV to advanced HCV.

Highlights

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a virus that weakens the immune system by attacking the CD4+ T-cells
The number of individuals dually infected with HIV and latent hepatitis C virus (HCV) (IHCL) in the long run is more than that of individuals dually infected with HIV and acute HCV (IHC)
Sensitivity analysis revealed that HIV transmission probability per sexual contact and average number of sexual partners acquired per year are likely to result into increased HIV infections

Summary

Introduction

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a virus that weakens the immune system by attacking the CD4+ T-cells. These authors suggested specific measures to be considered in order to reduce HIV and HCV infections, such as distributing more condoms to individuals and encourage condom use during anal intercourse and developing campaign to sensitize individuals on the dangers of having many sexual partners. The existing HIV-HCV coinfection mathematical models, for example, by Carvalho and Pinto [5, 14] and Bhunu and Mushayabasa [15], have been developed by either ignoring infection stages or considering HCV in two stages of infection, i.e., acute and chronic infection. We believe the model formulated in this work can be extended to other biological systems and disease dynamics such as studying the dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection

Model Formulation

Model Analysis and Results

Global Stability of the HIV Endemic Equilibrium

Sensitivity Analysis

Numerical Simulations

Conclusion