Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 with Vaccination, Quarantine and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract

This study formulated and analyzed a deterministic mathematical model of ten compartments for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection using a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The system has disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The basic reproduction number was obtained using the next-generation matrix method and the stability of the equilibrium points were analyzed. From the qualitative analysis, the disease-free equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical simulations of the model were carried out using MATLAB R2021a. Based on the result obtained, it was concluded that the implementation of vaccination, non-pharmaceutical intervention as well as contact tracing and quarantine can lead to effective control or elimination of the COVID-19 pandemic. And hence, we recommend that the responsible agencies should create a way of enlightening the public on the need of being vaccinated for COVID-19 so as to prevent themselves from getting infected; also, adequate and effective implementation of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions is required in order to prevent or curtail the COVID-19 infection completely. COVID-19, Non-pharmaceutical intervention, Quarantine, Stability analysis, Vaccination