Abstract
In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care.
Highlights
The world is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic
The Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique works in synergy with the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) which approximates the sign and strength of the relationship that exists between each model parameter and any specified output variable [37]
This followed from the fact that it was not understood whether initial infection offered an everlasting or partial protective immunity
Summary
The world is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic. In December 2019 the Wuhan city of China was considered as the epicenter of the novel coronavirus. The pandemic unfolded as a cluster of patients being admitted to hospital in late December 2019. These patients were diagnosed with pneumonia [1]. At first the medical practitioners linked the cause of the disease to a seafood and wet animal market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China [1]. As it is known the aetiological agent of the disease is a novel coronavirus identified as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease caused by the virus was named by the World Health Organization (WHO) as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [2]. As at Mid July 2020 COVID-19 had spread to over 213 countries causing about 15,969,465 infections and 643,390 deaths
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