Abstract
Due to the recent worldwide outbreak of COVID-19, there has been an enormous change in our lifestyle and it has a severe impact in different fields like finance, education, business, travel, tourism, economy, etc., in all the affected countries. In this scenario, people must be careful and cautious about the symptoms and should act accordingly. Accurate predictions of different factors, like the end date of the pandemic, duration of lockdown and spreading trend can guide us through the pandemic and precautions can be taken accordingly. Multiple attempts have been made to model the virus transmission, but none of them has investigated it at a global level. The novelty of the proposed work lies here. In this paper, first, authors have analysed spreading of the said disease using data collected from various platforms and then, have presented a predictive mathematical model for fifteen countries from first, second and third world for probable future projections of this pandemic. The prediction can be used by planning commission, healthcare organizations and the government agencies as well for creating suitable arrangements against this pandemic.
Highlights
COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019), the name given by the World Health Organization (WHO) to the worldwide spread disease caused by novel coronavirus, the most
The proposed work for analysis and prediction of worldwide COVID-19 has been conducted using dataset collected from worldometer [46], which is developed and maintained by an international group of researchers and developers, having an aim of making world statistics available in a time relevant format and has been recognised as the best free reference website by the American Library Association
The role of lockdown on susceptible people and isolation of infectious people has been discussed in this paper based on the basis of reproduction number of SIR model on epidemic spread in general
Summary
Several research works have reported different factors of the coronavirus outbreak [2,3,4]. Published reports are based on the prediction of the end dates of COVID-19 in different countries [5], the size at the end [6], the prediction of spreading date-wise in the affected countries [7, 8], etc. An influenza epidemic about a century ago has shown how the situation can get worse day by day just for the exponential growth due to the large number of susceptible people in India. The impact of travel restrictions due to COVID-19 has been discussed in [11] where the modelling results have shown that sustained 90% travel limitations to and from China differently affects the epidemic route. The results suggest that isolation, home quarantine and early detection are more effective than travel restriction because, it has delayed the progression of the virus within China by 3–5 days, but could not stop it from propagation
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