Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 has made scientists from all over the world do not measureefforts to understand the dynamics of the disease caused by this coronavirus. Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe the dynamics and make predictions. This work proposes a mathematical model that includes social isolation of susceptible individuals as a strategy of suppression and mitigation of the disease. The Susceptible-Infectious-Isolated-Recovered-Dead (SIQRD) model is proposed to analyze three important issues about the dynamics of the disease taking into account social isolation: when the isolation should begin? How long to keep the isolation? How to get out of this isolation? To get answers, computer simulations are provided and their results discussed. The results obtained show that beginning social isolation on the 10th or 15th days, after confirmation of the 50th case, and with 70% of the population in isolation, seems to be promising, since the infected curve does not grow much until it enters the isolation and remains at a stable level during the isolation. On the other hand an abrupt release of the social isolation will imply a second peak of infected individuals above the first one, which is not desired. Therefore, the release from social isolation should be gradual.
Highlights
Coronavirus is a type of virus that has a zoonotic origin
The introduction of social isolation as variables in the mathematical models of the COVID-19 dynamics is one of the suggested ways to analyze control strategies in simulations of system dynamics, which can be applied in different compartmental models, such as SIR and SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered)
Two new equations were included to the traditional SIR model [5, 6, 7]: an equation that describes the social isolation of susceptible individuals and the other that indicates dead cases
Summary
Coronavirus is a type of virus that has a zoonotic origin. At the end of 2019, the first COVID-19 victim was diagnosed with the coronavirus in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province, China. The introduction of social isolation as variables in the mathematical models of the COVID-19 dynamics is one of the suggested ways to analyze control strategies in simulations of system dynamics, which can be applied in different compartmental models, such as SIR and SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered). Two new equations were included to the traditional SIR model [5, 6, 7]: an equation that describes the social isolation of susceptible individuals and the other that indicates dead cases In this simplified model, the compartment of the tested population was not considered, in the social isolation compartment enter the susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic infected individuals. Regarding the compartment of dead individuals, as there is a strict COVID-19 death statistics, it is important to keep the recovered and dead classes separately Based on this model, several aspects were considered in relation to the social isolation of the susceptible individuals, including answers to the following questions: When this strategy should begin? Disease spread and growth, such as the beginning of social isolation, isolation time, the number of isolated individuals or how quickly isolated individuals can be released
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