Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of an Epidemic Disease-Mumps

Abstract

Over one-quarter of the Cauvery delta region people are at risk from epidemic diseases and the majority is mumps infections. Molecular evidence suggests spread has been almost exclusively through human-to-human contact. Social factors are clearly important to understand the epidemic and ways in which it might be spreads are analyzed. The present paper focuses on People in the villages of kamalapuram, Punavasal and sithamalli in Tiruvarur district mauled by the mumps outbreak-an outbreak is declared if at least five cases of a disease are found from a place-believe that Goddess Durga has entered the child's body and will only leave if pleased with worship. Children suffering from mumps often develop secondary, potentially lethal infections like measles, pneumonia, diarrhoea and encephalitis. Mumps is vaccine preventable, but a vaccination card-a checklist of vaccines that should be given to a child at different stages of growth-is an unheard-which shows the lack of awareness and seriousness about their children's health. In this paper we offer some data and observations relating to the Mumps epidemic, We propose that greater attention should be paid to rural areas for the disease. A concluding discussion considers what assistance might be necessary if rural communities are to reduce transmission rates.