Mathematical Modeling of the Evolutionary Dynamics of a Planktonic Community Using a Discrete-Time Model

Abstract

This study proposes a discrete-time eco-genetic model of a planktonic community that includes zooplankton and two competing phytoplankton haplotypes with and without a toxicity trait. The Holling type II response function describes predator consumption. We use the Ricker model to consider density limitation and regulation. The model is analytically and numerically studied. The loss of stability of fixed points occurs via the Neimark–Sacker scenario and a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations. The model reveals bistability and multistability. Therefore, the initial conditions can determine which of the coexisting dynamic modes will be attracted. If the competition of haplotypes is weaker than their self-regulation, then the variation in the current densities of community components can shift the observed dynamics, while the evolution direction remains unchanged. The ratio of haplotype fitnesses and predator pressure generally determines the asymptotic genetic composition of phytoplankton. If competition of haplotypes is higher than their self-regulation, then the bistability of monomorphic fixed points occurs when the displacement of one haplotype by another depends on initial conditions. The presence of predators can maintain the genetic polymorphism of the prey. This system shows dynamic modes similar to experimental dynamics: oscillation with delay, long-period antiphase fluctuations, and cryptic cycles emerging due to rapid evolution.