MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article considers the issues of selection and use of management tools and methods, development and selection of enterprise strategy taking into account risks. The author's understanding of the risk management process is given, the basic principles that guide the development and implementation of risk management strategy at the enterprise are listed. The development of a risk assessment algorithm is proposed and the features of individual elements of the integrated risk assessment flowchart are characterized. In the paper, attention was drawn to the differences in the qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the peculiarities of their methodology were determined. Considerable attention is paid to the definition of risk assessment methods, methods of risk minimization are listed, and as a result, the definition of the term "risk" is generalized. The methods of formation of enterprise strategy, which can be represented by three groups: portfolio analysis methods, mathematical methods, forecasting methods, are investigated. It is determined that modern methods of enterprise management and mechanisms for making key decisions in business imply the need to develop a procedure for both substantive and quantitative accounting and assessment of the entire range of possible uncertainties and risks that accompany the market activity of the enterprise. It is shown that most of the risks to be taken into account, quantified and accounted for in the economic and mathematical model of the enterprise, cover two main activities of the enterprise, and are integrated into the concept of risk management assessment: production and financial sphere. An economic and mathematical model of choosing the optimal strategy of the enterprise, taking into account the risk factors of management, according to the criterion of maximizing the amount of consolidated cash flow from operating and financial activities, which reflects both the production and technological conditions of the enterprise and the peculiarities of decision-making in the commodity and financial markets, is built. This optimization model is implemented to solve the problem of choosing the optimal management strategy taking into account management risks. However, all these methods start to work when the risk is realized (or must be realized) in losses and damages. Such an approach to building an effective risk management system does not comply with the principle of proactivity: it is not necessary to include in the cost estimate of the enterprise the costs of eliminating the consequences of the risk, it is necessary to include the costs of preventing the risk. With this approach, preventive and adequate measures can reduce the cost of risk, as well as choose the optimal level of risk, which is determined by the minimum cost. The results of the analysis show that most of the known methods of forecasting and risk assessment are inapplicable in conditions of unpredictability. The situation with the application of risk management tools is slightly better. Dissipation and insurance, as well as diversification of activities and the creation of funds and reserves are at least limitedly applicable. The presence of a risk assessment and coordination system at the enterprise will make it possible to identify existing risks, determine the level of danger and, using certain methods and tools of risk management, reduce their negative impact on the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Currently, the approach to risk assessment is being transformed, as new challenges require fundamental changes in risk assessment and modeling systems.