Mathematical Modeling of Human Activity on Forested Areas from Point Objects of Railway Infrastructure in a Two-Dimensional Statement

Abstract

Human activity causes a large quantity of wildfires in areas close to the location of different industrial or transport infrastructure. All the infrastructure facilities of JSC Russian Railways may be classified into linear, point and area sources of human activity. This work purpose is to suggest an approach for predicting, assessing, and monitoring the human activity on forested areas based on a deterministic mathematical model. Partial differential equations have been solved using the finite difference method. The program realization is executed in the RAD Studio software. Expressions like the heat conduction equation are used to describe the propagation of human activity around railway facilities. Different railway objects have produced different distribution of the virtual (possible) number of forest fires (VNF) caused by the different level of human activity. Different sizes of the railway facilities have also showed that a highest VNF is predicted for large one. The proposed mathematical model is applicable to predict wildfires due to human activity. This paper discusses the possibility of predicting forest fire dangers near point infrastructure facilities of JSC Russian Railways. The results obtained are part of a large project aimed to develop methods for predicting, assessing, and monitoring forest fire danger near infrastructure facilities of Russian Railways.