Mathematical modeling of egg production curve in a multivariety endangered hen breed

Abstract

This study aimed to compare the egg laying performance of the four varieties (white, franciscan, black, and partridge) of a Spanish endangered Utrerana hen breed. A flock of 60 Utrerana hens (15 hen/variety) were individually housed to enable daily egg traceability. Compartmental, Gamma, linear hyperbolic, logistic curvilinear, McNally, Narushin-Takma, and quadratic logarithmic nonlinear regression functions were fitted. Goodness-of-fit (coefficient of determination (R2)) and flexibility criteria (mean squared error (MSE), Akaike information criteria (AIC), corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc), Bayesian information criteria (BIC)) were evaluated to identify the best-fitting function to model for egg production curve. Best-fitting values were reported by the six-parameter Narushin-Takma model for white (R2 = 0.828), franciscan (R2 = 0.888), and black (R2 = 0.899) varieties. By contrast, quadratic logarithmic was reported to be the best-fitting model for partridge Utrerana hen egg production curve (R2 = 0.917). The characterization of the laying cycle of endangered avian breeds varieties permits tailoring productive strategies which may ensure animal welfare at the same that they boost economic potentialities, enabling the productive model to better simultaneously fulfill animal needs and human demands. As a result, breed diversity may act as the motor element to improve economic profitability, but in turn may also ensure the conservation of the local genetic resources from which desirable products, such as the egg, are obtained.