Mathematical Modeling of Dynamics of Crime Indicators in the Field of Computer Information

Abstract

The actual task of analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the main crime indicators in the field of computer information is investigated. The registered values of the key parameters from the official statistics of the Ministry of the Interior are considered as indicators. To solve the problem, mathematical software is proposed based on the principles of system dynamics. The proposed complexes of models include causal matrices reflecting direct and inverse relationships between the variables in question, and systems of nonlinear differential equations. Causal matrices are based on the study of the correlation of the values of the variables in question, given from statistics. Systems of differential equations are built on the basis of cause-effect matrices and principles of system dynamics. The solution of these systems of differential equations by approximate methods makes it possible to analyze trends and make predictions of the values of the variables in question at different time intervals with fairly high accuracy. Experiments with the developed models will allow us to quantify the effect of various factors on the growth or decrease in crime in the field of computer information. The use of the developed software is shown in an example that compares the effect of the number of sentences and new legislation on reducing the number of computer crimes. The results are intended to support decision-making on combating crime in the field of computer information.