Abstract
In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient c_0 and the basic reproduction number {mathscr {R}}_0. Different scenarios are tested with different values of c_0, for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking {mathscr {R}}_0 and c_0. A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading.
Highlights
The infectious diseases was always a challenge of scientific to prevent the pandemic spreading
In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco
Different scenarios are tested with different values of c0, for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking R0 and c0
Summary
The infectious diseases was always a challenge of scientific to prevent the pandemic spreading. Our goal in this work is to build a modified compartmental epidemiological (SIR) model describing the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus under the policies adopted in Morocco. In this model we incorporates the isolation of infected people, we take account on the people moving freely and are infected but don’t have symptoms and added the measure of the quarantine of the people interacting with an affected individual. Our object is different, since we establish a relationship between the pertinence of the containment strategies and a containment control coefficient Based on those considerations we build the model, study the positivity, boundness and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 for a Disease-Free Equilibrium.
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