Abstract
The article develops economic and mathematical models as a tool for conducting factor financial analysis of the prospects for the development of an industrial enterprise. The functioning of the developed economic and mathematical models is based on the DuPont model, which allows analyzing the dynamics of the company’s profitability in the course of two-factor and three-factor financial analysis. The proposed model tools are based on the convergence of deterministic financial analysis methods embedded in the DuPont model and simulation methods that allow analysis under the influence of random factors. The constructed economic and mathematical models for forecasting profitability use the company’s retrospective data on its financial condition: the amount of profit, revenue, assets, and equity. The constructed simulation models are implemented in the OMEGA software product and included in the computer technology for predicting the profitability of an industrial enterprise. The architecture of the proposed tools is presented, and the results of simulation experiments performed on models are demonstrated.
Highlights
At present, economic development and improving the competitiveness of the economy is a priority in shaping the policy of any country
The economic and mathematical tools developed by the authors were based on the DuPont model, which allows analyzing the dynamics of the profitability of an enterprise in the course of two-factor and three-factor financial analysis
The mathematical models proposed by the authors of this article allow, based on the processing of retrospective data accumulated in the database, the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise by determining the coefficients of return on equity and assets using the convergence of deterministic and stochastic approaches
Summary
Economic development and improving the competitiveness of the economy is a priority in shaping the policy of any country. The business parameters that are directly associated with the resulting enterprise profit, the profitability indicators formally defined by the ratio of the resulting effect of the invested capital or resources and characterizing the efficiency of the resources used in economic activity The study of these characteristics, as fundamental criteria for efficiency, is assigned one of the main roles in the system of analysis of enterprises’ activities. This article does not aim to consider formal expressions for many types of individual indicators of profitability, calculated in different areas and which include return on assets (ROA), return on sales (ROS), return on fixed assets (ROFA), return on investment (ROI), return on equity (ROE), etc The use of these indicators for financial analysis undoubtedly has a number of advantages, including ease of calculation, understanding, compliance with accounting methods, and traditional application. The research uses methods of factor financial analysis (two-factor and three-factor), statistical modeling, and statistical data processing
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