Mathematical Modeling for Dengue Fever Transmission Dynamics in Kebri Dehar District, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection and is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected female Aedes mosquito of the species Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. In this study, we developed and analysed a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) mathematical model which describes the transmission dynamics of dengue in Kebri Dehar district of Somali regional state. To achieve the objective of the study, we employed different mathematical tools and available cumulative cases data from Kebri Dehar district health office. The model was developed using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and we performed analysis for both local and global stability of the equilibrium points of the model and the basic reproduction number for the year 2017 to 2021 is R_0 ≈ 0.0421071. In addition the parameters of the model are estimated by using the confirmed dengue cases of Kebri Dehar district for the year 2017 to 2021. Moreover, we studied numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis of the based on reproduction number that revealed the death rate of the mosquitoes and the host transmission rate are the most influential parameters. Our results suggest that the prevention of mosquitoes from humans (measure to decreasing transmission rate from mosquito to human) and any measure the increases the mortality of mosquitoes can significantly reduce the infection of dengue fever and may reduce further spread of infection in the community.