Mathematical Modeling Based Study and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination Under the Impact of Lockdown in India

Vipin Tiwari,Namrata Deyal,Nandan S Bisht

doi:10.3389/fphy.2020.586899

Abstract

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is rapidly spreading in south asian countries especially in India. India is the fourth most COVID-19 affected country at present i.e. until July 10, 2020. With limited medical facilities and high transmission rate, the study of COVID-19 progression and its subsequent trajectory need to be analyzed in India. Epidemiologic mathematical models have the potential to predict the epidemic peak of COVID-19 under different scenarios. Lockdown is one of the most effective mitigation policy adopted worldwide to control the transmission rate of COVID-19 cases. In this study, we use an improvised five compartment mathematical model, i.e. Susceptible (S) - Exposed (E) - Infected (I) - Recovered (R) - Death (D) (SEIRD) to investigate the progression of COVID-19 and predict the epidemic peak under the impact of lockdown in India. The aim of this study is to provide the more precise prediction of epidemic peak and to evaluate the impact of lockdown on epidemic peak shift in India. For this purpose, we examine most recent data (from January 30, 2020 to July 10, 2020 i.e. 160 days) to enhance the accuracy of outcomes obtained from the proposed model. The model predicts the total number of COVID-19 active cases would be around 5.8 105 on August 15, 2020 under current circumstances. In addition, our study indicates the existence of under-reported cases i.e. 105 during post-lockdown period in India. Consequently, this study suggests that nationwide public lockdown would lead to epidemic peak suppression in India. It is expected that the obtained results would be beneficial for determining further COVID-19 mitigation policies not only in India but globally as well.

Highlights

COVID-19 is a contagious disease of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (SARS-COV) family, and has emerged as the biggest health crisis of the twenty-first century across the globe
We propose an improvised five compartment mathematical model i.e., Susceptible (S)-Exposed (E)-Infected (I)-Recovered (R)-Death (D) (SEIRD model) to analyze the progression of COVID-19 and forecast the epidemic peak of COVID-19 pandemic under the influence of a nationwide public lockdown in India
It implies that the lockdown has been implemented at the beginning phase of COVID-19 transmission in India

Summary

Introduction

COVID-19 is a contagious disease of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (SARS-COV) family, and has emerged as the biggest health crisis of the twenty-first century across the globe. It has been declared as a global pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 just after a few months since its first case reported in Wuhan, China [1]. COVID-19 infected patients generally exhibit common symptoms like cough, fever and respiratory disorders. It might result in serious health issues like kidney failure, and pneumonia which might cause death of patients. Investigations on COVID-19 indicate that it transmits through respiratory droplets, as well as human to human transition [2].

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