Mathematical modeling based on RT-qPCR analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater as a tool for epidemiology

Naďa Krivoňáková,Ján Krahulec,Marián Gall,Miroslav Gál,Andrea Butor Škulcová,Tomáš Mackuľak,Michal Tamáš,Ivana Horáková,Anna Krivjanská,Zdenko Takáč,Miroslav Fehér,Noemi Belišová,Andrea Šoltýsová,Paula Bímová,Andrej Ficek

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-98653-x

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerges to scientific research and monitoring of wastewaters to predict the spread of the virus in the community. Our study investigated the COVID-19 disease in Bratislava, based on wastewater monitoring from September 2020 until March 2021. Samples were analyzed from two wastewater treatment plants of the city with reaching 0.6 million monitored inhabitants. Obtained results from the wastewater analysis suggest significant statistical dependence. High correlations between the number of viral particles in wastewater and the number of reported positive nasopharyngeal RT-qPCR tests of infected individuals with a time lag of 2 weeks/12 days (R2 = 83.78%/R2 = 52.65%) as well as with a reported number of death cases with a time lag of 4 weeks/27 days (R2 = 83.21%/R2 = 61.89%) was observed. The obtained results and subsequent mathematical modeling will serve in the future as an early warning system for the occurrence of a local site of infection and, at the same time, predict the load on the health system up to two weeks in advance.

Highlights

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerges to scientific research and monitoring of wastewaters to predict the spread of the virus in the community
Longterm international experience with systematic monitoring of illegal drugs and their metabolites proposes that wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be a highly effective way of surveillance for the presence of specific pathogens in c ommunities[3,4,5,6] (Fig. 1)
SARS-CoV-2 or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 causing respiratory illness COVID-19 is infectious diseases that resulted in 216 303 376 diagnosed cases and 4 498 451 deaths as of 30th August 2021 according to WHO7

Summary

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerges to scientific research and monitoring of wastewaters to predict the spread of the virus in the community. The method’s detection limit was calculated as the number of monitored inhabitants divided by minimal positive cases reported at the date with positive RT-qPCR wastewater analysis for SARS-CoV-2.

Results

Conclusion