Mathematical Modeling-based Analysis from the Great Patriotic War Events

Abstract

When fighting against terrorism in modern armed conflicts, combat vehicles, including tanks, are widely used. To minimise own losses of vehicles and personnel for overthrowing enemy is a relevant task. To solve it, the paper considers certain events in the history of the Great Patriotic War, which are associated with battle of tanks that spring an ambush. A mathematical model of the battle is built. The state graph of the system is given. Using this graph, a probability of tank kills and a ratio of mathematical expectations of losses have been calculated. This mathematical model generalizes the models, previously published in this journal, based on the Markov chain apparatus. The paper gives an example of calculations for this model in the particular case in which experimental data are used as a basis. The ratios of mathematical expectations of losses of the warring parties are obtained. Further, we consider the mathematical models, in which it is assumed that probabilities for tank crews to provide operations of targets detection in firing are known. With technology development and its mathematical support it becomes increasingly more real. The formulas to obtain the probability of tank kills are given according to the graph of states using the known probabilities of transition from one state to another. In each of the three mathematical models under consideration there is a graph of the system state, which allows calculation of the tank kills probability. We have analysed the models to prove a significant dependence of the loss ratio of the warring parties on the number of firing positions used by the tank in ambush in case re-siting is unnoticeable for the enemy. The authors-considered models that use the examples of historical events confirm that the tactics of organising and conducting ambushes in tank battles can be successfully used nowadays, when the technology intensiveness of the opposing forces significantly grows. The obtained results can be applied to organise and conduct tank ambushes in modern armed conflicts and fight against terrorist army.