Mathematical modeling and predicting wildland fire effects

Abstract

A qualitative assessment is made of the role of mathematical modeling in predicting the effects of wildland fires. Specific roles for mathematical models of physical processes involved in causing fire effects are identified in creating decision aids for helping managers make better decisions in planning fire use and in strategic planning of wildfire suppression. More direct roles are seen in helping to strengthen our knowledge base about fire effects through more efficient use of research resources. In assessing the potential utility of mathematical models in these roles, a novel taxonomy of wildland fire effects is introduced, based on longevity of the effect, time delay between fire and emergence of effect, and distance between fire and effect. Physical processes are identified as candidates for mathematical modeling, as factors complicating the realization or use of the models. Candidate modeling topics are identified as Then, using the fire-effects taxonomy described, qualitative practical limits on the predictability of processes involved in them are deduced by considering contributing complicating factors that are identified as not likely to be modeled reliably. By so doing, the list of candidate topics for mathematical modeling is refined and reduced to the following recommended set. Heat transfer to, and thermal response of, live vegetation parts within and near the fire environment. Heat transfer to soil under burning duff. Heat transfer to soil exposed to fire environment without duff cover. Heat and mass transfer in fire-heated porous media. Physical, chemical, and hydrological responses of soils to high-temperature environments. Fluid mechanics of wind fields interacting with fire and vegetation cover.