Mathematical modeling and optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector

Abstract

Energy demand is rising day by day and will continue to increase to meet the demand of the growing population. A major portion of global energy production comes from fossil fuel burning, resulting in the increase in the atmospheric burden of global warming gas carbon dioxide ( $$CO _{2}$$ ). Cutting down $$CO _{2}$$ emission from the energy sector is crucial to meet the climate change mitigation target. This paper is focused on fulfilling two objectives: The first objective is to present a mathematical model that captures the dynamical relationship between the human population, energy use, and atmospheric carbon dioxide, and the second aim is to derive a mathematical framework to effectively utilize the available mitigation options to curtail $$CO _{2}$$ emission from energy use by proposing an optimal control problem. The mitigation options that reduce the $$CO _{2}$$ emission rate from energy production, as well as the options that reduce the energy consumption rate, are considered in the modeling process. The proposed mathematical model is analyzed qualitatively to comprehend the system’s long-term behavior. The model parameters are fitted to real data of global energy use, population, and $$CO _{2}$$ concentration. It is shown that the equilibrium level of $$CO _{2}$$ reduces with the increase in the efficiencies of mitigation options to reduce the $$CO _{2}$$ emission rate per unit energy use and energy consumption rate. The optimality system is derived analytically by taking the efficiencies of the mitigation options to reduce the $$CO _{2}$$ emission rate and energy consumption rate as control variables. Numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical findings and identify the optimal profiles of control variables under different settings of $$CO _{2}$$ emission rate, energy consumption rate, and maximum efficiencies of available mitigation options to cut down $$CO _{2}$$ emission rate and energy consumption rate. It is found that the development and implementation of more efficient mitigation options and switching to low carbon energy sources bring reduction in the mitigation cost.