Mathematical Modeling and Numerical Simulation for the Outbreak of COVID-19 Involving Loss of Immunity and Quarantined Class.

Abstract

For the analysis of the recent deadly pandemic Sars-Cov-2, we constructed the mathematical model containing the whole population, partitioned into five different compartments, represented by SEIQR model. This current model especially contains the quarantined class and the factor of loss of immunity. Further, we discussed the stability of the SEIQR model (constructed on the basis of system of coupled differential equations). The basic reproduction that indicates the behavior of the disease is also estimated by the use of next-generation matrix method. Numerical simulation of this model is provided, the results are analyzed by theoretically strong numerical methods, and computationally known tool MATLAB Simulink is also used for visualization of the results. Validation of results by Simulink software and numerical methods shows that our model and adopted methodology are appropriate and accurate and could be used for further predictions on COVID-19. Our results suggest that the isolation of the active cases and strong immunization of patients or individuals play a major role to fight against the deadly Sars-Cov-2.