Mathematical modeling and analysis for the transmission dynamics of blinding trachoma with effect of awareness programs

Abstract

Trachoma is among neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) which the World Health Organization (WHO) designated as a priority for surveillance and elimination. The severity of the epidemic has largely been controlled in many countries, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in some parts of Nigeria. One of the major reasons for Nigeria’s failure in the fight against the epidemic is lack of effective health care system and awareness programs which play a vital role in the control of the blinding trachoma epidemic. This study proposed a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of blinding trachoma in Nigeria that consider both person to person and vector transmission dynamics. The analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R01. We fit the model with field data instances from Northern Nigeria and provide a detailed estimation of the model parameters. Our result shows that, the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly implemented. We obtained some simulation results with the aid of mesh plots for the reproductive number R0 as a function of two different biological parameters. Using forward sensitivity index approach, we perform sensitive analysis to point out the most sensitive parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic. Finally, This research suggest that, the awareness programs and improvement of personal hygiene will play a significant role in controlling the spread of the epidemic.