Mathematical model possibility of the risk of developing atherosclerosis among 30–49 years old of Slavic and Korean population

Abstract

The research purpose: development of a mathematical model for predicting the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in young adults 30-49 years old of Slavic and Korean ethnicity.Materials and methods. 136 conditionally healthy people of Slavic (n-84) and Korean ethnicity (n-52) were evaluated. The survey was conducted according to the design of ESSE-RF study. A carotid arteries duplex scan has been conducted. The predictive model was developed using the logistic regression method.Results. Ethnic groups did not differ among themselves in terms of age, smoking prevalence and gender (p > 0.05). In KEG increased levels of apoB containing lipoproteins was revealed (level non-HDL-C in KEG was 5,0 ± 1,1 mmol/l versus 4.0 ± 0.9 mmol/l in SEG (p < 0,001), HDL and apoA did not differ between groups (p > 0,05).The prevalence atherosclerosis of the CA was 28.6% in SEG and 32.7% in KEG (p > 0,05). In average KEG had more pronounced atherosclerotic process in the CAthe total percentage of stenosis in the SEG 40 [20; 50] % vs 51 [29; 59] % in KEG, p =0,044, and the average % of stenoses is 22.5 [20; 25] % versus 25.5 [24.6; 29] % respectively, p = 0.029.Binary logistic regression method was used for developing a predictive model for determine the risk of developing carotid atherosclerosis, the area under the ROC curve was 0.848 ± 0.040 with 95% CI: 0.769–0.927. The model was statistically significant, p < 0,001.Conclusion. Above referenced model makes it possible to evaluate with high accuracy the risk of developing carotid atherosclerosis on a standard dispensary appointment basis.