Abstract
In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
