MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF HUMAN GESTATION AND PARTURITION: IMPLICATIONS FOR EARLY DIAGNOSIS OF PREMATURITY AND POSTMATURITY

Abstract

Knowledge of precursors and predictors of human parturition would be important both for our understanding of the controlling mechanisms and for practical use in the detection and diagnosis of various abnormalities of the birth process. They involve a multitude of genetic, metabolic, nutritional, hormonal and environmental factors. Present research is however hindered by the lack of a clear recognized correlation between the time evolution of these various variables and the initiation of parturition. Here, we propose a coherent logical framework which allows us to rationalize the various laboratory and clinical observations on maturation, the triggering mechanisms of parturition, the existence of various abnormal patterns as well as the effect of external stimuli of various kinds. Within the proposed mathematical model, parturition is seen as a ”critical” instability or phase transition from a state of quietness, characterized by a weak incoherent activity of the uterus in its various parts as a function of time (state of activity of many small incoherent intermittent oscillators), to a state of globally coherent contractions where the uterus functions as a single macroscopic oscillator. Our approach gives a number of new predictions and suggests a strategy for future research and clinical studies, which present interesting potentials for improvements in predicting methods and in describing various abnormal prenatal situations.