Mathematical model of human decision - a methodological basis for the realization of the human factor in safety management

Abstract

Without a methodological basis for solving the problems of human factor in safety management in the form of process conditions, we cannot guarantee the achievement of the goal of the activity. This situation gave rise to a fundamental problem: "The results of activities to address the problems of safety management processes do not meet the expectations of the decision-maker". The decision maker acts on the basis of three categories: system, model and goal. There are two approaches are known for the development of the system. Development of the system on the basis of analysis and development of a system based on synthesis. Achieving the goal of safety management processes taking account into human factor is possible only on the basis of a correctly constructed system and an adequate model. Development of the system on the basis of synthesis makes it possible to form a model based on the final result. The model of safety management processes taking account into human factor is based on the system integration of the three processes: formation of a threat, recognizing the threat and eliminating the threat. The level of safety management processes is the likelihood that each threat will be detected and eliminated. The modeling results confirmed the main trends in the process of maintaining safety in various fields of human activity.