Mathematical Model of Generalized Assessment of the Rating of Similar Objects Based on Statistical Data from the Standpoint of Epidemiological Safety (on the Example of the Incidence of COVID-19 in the Regions of the Volga Federal District)

Abstract

Th e article describes the construction of a generalized assessment of the incidence of COVID-19 in the regions of the Russian Federation. Th e mathematical model includes normalization of relative morbidity indicators, which allows comparing the incidence rate in diff erent regions and the degree of change in morbidity. Based on the developed scale of epidemiological safety and the risk of disease spread, the assessment of the level of disease and the spread of COVID-19 in the subjects of the Volga Federal District is carried out.The relevance of the study is due to the fact that a comparative analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 by region is currently one of the main conditions for identifying factors in the spread/localization of the disease, assessing the eff ectiveness of eff orts and developing a system of measures to counter the spread of the disease.