Mathematical model of gas consumption process in the form of cyclic random process

Abstract

In the article, a new mathematical model of gas consumption process is considered. This model is presented as the sum of three components: a cyclic random process, a trend component and a stochastic balance. Two methods of stochastic processing of the cyclic process of gas consumption based on the known model of stochastically periodic random process and cyclic random process as models of the cyclic component of the gas consumption process are used in the research. Application of the mathematical model of the cyclic component in the form of cyclic random process allowed to obtain an estimate of the variance in the cycle of the gas consumption process, provided the cyclic component is segmented by depressions, which is much smaller than the obtained variance estimate for the application of the mathematical model as a stochastically periodic random process. This indicates more accurate processing of the gas consumption process. The obtained stochastic estimates can be used in computer and simulation modeling, as well as in analysis and forecasting of gas consumption process in further research.