Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a severe threat to public health officials all around the world. The early COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. The number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (epicenter), whereas the spread was much slower in the rest of Korea. A two-patch mathematical model with a mobility matrix is developed to capture this significant spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 outbreaks from 18 February to 24 March 2020. The mobility matrix is taken from the movement data provided by the Korea Transport Institute (KOTI). Some of the essential patch-specific parameters are estimated through cumulative confirmed cases, including the transmission rates and the basic reproduction numbers (local and global). Our simulations show that travel restrictions between the epicenter and the rest of Korea effectively prevented massive outbreaks in the rest of Korea. Furthermore, we explore the effectiveness of several additional strategies for the mitigation and suppression of Covid-19 spread in Korea, such as implementing social distancing and early diagnostic interventions.
Highlights
IntroductionThe first case of the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
The first case of the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2), was reported by Chinese health officials in Wuhan City in December 2019.Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that can cause illnesses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and the Middle East respiratory syndrome [1]
We explore the impacts of two other interventions on two-patch COVID-19 transmission dynamics
Summary
The first case of the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. On 23 January, the Chinese government implemented a total lockdown of Wuhan City, which prevented further community spread [4] Owing to this strict intervention, the number of new COVID-19 cases in China dropped to the single-digits in early March. In South Korea, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported on 20 January, and the number of cases steadily increased to 30 by 17 February. Most of the confirmed cases were concentrated in Daegu or Gyeongbuk, COVID-19 spread to nearly every part of the country [7]. We develop a two-patch model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, representing a hot spot (patch 1: Daegu and Gyeongbuk) and a slow-spreading area (patch 2: the rest of Korea).
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