MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND CONTROL STRATEGIES

Jumanne M. Mng’ang’a

doi:10.26483/ijarcs.v11i5.6637

Abstract

In this paper, we present a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and control strategies. The result reveal that the disease free equilibrium point exists and it is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than one unit and otherwise unstable when is greater than one unit. Simulation and discussions of a different variable of the model has been performed and we have compute sensitivity index of each parameter through sensitivity analysis of different embedded parameters. MATLAB of ode45 was employed perform numerical simulation analysis and the results show that there is importance of isolating infectious individual in an epidemic disease within the population.

Highlights

This paper describes a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and control strategies
COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus in fection that can be found around the world
This study aims to develop a mathe matica l mode l of COVID19 transmission dynamics and control strategies

Summary

INTRO DUCTIO N

The COVID- 19 pandemic is considered as the biggest global threat wo rld wide because of thousands of confirmed infections, accompanied by thousands deaths over the world. COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus in fection that can be found around the world. COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes (objects or surfaces). Transmission of the novel corona virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immed iate [16][5]. The disease has continued causing both economic and health problems to large population world wide mostly affect ing elders [1]. Due to these impacts, this study aims to develop a mathe matica l mode l of COVID19 transmission dynamics and control strategies. The manuscript is organized by Description of variable, compart mental mathemat ical model of COVID-19, Existence of disease free equilibriu m (DFE) point, the basic reproduction number (Ro), simu lation of the mathemat ical model, and sensitivity analysis of each parameter involved in the model, conclusion and recommendation

PRO PO SED CO MPARTMENTAL DIAGRAM

BOUNDED SOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM

EXISTENCE O F DISEASE FREE EQ UILIBRIUM PO INT (DFE)

Numerical Simulation

Sensitivity Analysis

VIII. CONCLUSION