MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF BEHAVIORAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN ART PROJECTS

Abstract

The developed mathematical model of behavioral risk management of art-projects, created on the basis of the conceptual model "Palette" built earlier, is offered. The identified risks of art-projects, a detailed description of which is presented in previous scientific works of the author, were distributed between the four sources that formed the basis of the conceptual model "Palette". Given the extreme importance of the influence of the human factor on the art project, the identified risks from the four sources were classified in the group of behavioral risks. The author proposed the definition of behavioral risks in the context of the implementation of art projects, as destructive behavior of the art project team member, which can prevent the receipt of the art project product or the success of the project as a whole. The analysis of scientific works in the field of development and application of mathematical model in project management showed the expediency and practical effectiveness of this method. The mathematical model has become an effective tool for a project manager of any field in the calculation of various indicators important in the development of project management plans. According to the conceptual model "Palette" and the mathematical model, the author has developed a spectral palette (scale), which can be used to obtain a characteristic that determines how risky each of the potential team members to perform a certain art project, depending on the sector in which the result of the calculation of the probability of behavioral risk is entered. It is concluded that the application of this mathematical model is of practical value for the art-project manager in developing a plan of antirisk measures and choosing a behavioral strategy taking into account the obtained assessment of each potential team member of an art-project. Determining the degree of riskiness of each art-project team member gives the manager answers to many questions about the motives of individual actions of a certain team member, explains his behavior in performing personal tasks, and in interaction with other team members and art-project stakeholders. Further scientific work of the author is to develop methods of behavioral risk management of art-projects, aimed at improving the effectiveness of art-project team management for its successful implementation.