Abstract
Covid-19 initially started in China, although cases of infection by this virus are currently being identified in Europe since January and February of this year camouflaged within a strong outbreak of influenza that had not been identified before. What is certain is that in about a hundred days it has spread around the world threatening humanity. There seems to be a great need to find a rapid response to the speed at which the virus is spreading. In this work, different mathematical models are studied to accurately determine the speed of propagation or infection of people infected by Covid-19 based on data collected from the evolution of the pandemic in Spain. Several mathematical models are proposed and analyzed, but the model proposed as the most suitable is a fourth degree polynomial regression adjustment that presents an R-square statistic of 99.72% which gives a great adjustment of the model for the calculation of the number of infected confirmed by this virus in Spain.  Knowing these data is of vital importance to be able to take and undertake the most urgent health and social measures in an effective and orderly manner. This will have a great repercussion in being able to avoid a high number of possible infections.
Highlights
In 1927, biochemist William Ogilvy Kermack and epidemiologist Anderson Gray McKendrick (Kermack &McKendrich, 1932; Kermack & McKendrich, 1923), both Scottish, published a paper that is still used to model epidemics of infectious diseases
But counting the dead as "recovered" is part of the mathematical model that is at the base of most simulators used to show how the disease caused by the new coronavirus spreads around the world
The percentage of people infected by Covid-19 in the world is approximately 0.0447%, considering the world population at 7.88E9 people, the coronavirus pandemic has managed to generally alert humanity
Summary
In 1927, biochemist William Ogilvy Kermack and epidemiologist Anderson Gray McKendrick Vol 14, No 7; 2020 of those infected worldwide and 14.17% of those infected in Europe.The communities most affected in Spain by infected persons have been Madrid, Cataluña, Castilla La Mancha, Castilla and Leon and the País vasco It may sound strange, but counting the dead as "recovered" is part of the mathematical model that is at the base of most simulators used to show how the disease caused by the new coronavirus spreads around the world. But counting the dead as "recovered" is part of the mathematical model that is at the base of most simulators used to show how the disease caused by the new coronavirus spreads around the world It is the model on which the interactive map of the pandemic of the Johns Hopkins University in the United States is based, an institution that has positioned itself as one of the maximum statistical references in this health crisis (CNE, 2005; Sanglier, Robas & Jiménez, 2020a). In this paper we will analyze and present different mathematical models focused on adjusting to the total number of confirmed infections in Spain with data taken from the Center for Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies belonging to the Ministry of Health of Spain (MS, 2020)
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