Abstract
In the present work, Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) mathematical model for COVID-19 Pandemic is formulated and analyzed. The positivity, boundedness, and existence of the solutions of the model are proved. The Disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium points are identified. Local Stability of disease-free Equilibrium point is checked with the help of Next generation matrix. Global stability of endemic equilibrium point is proved using the Concept of Liapunove function. The basic reproduction number for Novel Corona virus pandemic is computed as R<sub>0</sub> = (αβΛ) ⁄ [(δ + μ) (β + δ + μ) (γ + δ + μ)] which depend on six different parameters. It is observed that if basic reproduction number is less than one, then number of cases decrease over time and eventually the disease dies out, and if the basic reproduction number is equals to one, then number of cases are stable. On the other hand, if the basic reproduction number is greater than one, then the number of cases increase over time gets worth. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done with respect to each parameter. It is observed that only some parameters Λ, α, β have high impact on the basic reproduction number. Consequently, with real data on the parameter it is helpful to predict the disease persistence or decline in the present situation. Lastly, numerical simulations are given using DEDiscover software to illustrate analytical results.
Highlights
IntroductionCorona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that can cause illnesses range from the common cold to much more severe illnesses like SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 [1,2,3]
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that can cause illnesses range from the common cold to much more severe illnesses like SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 [1,2,3].Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARSCov-2), commonly known as Novel Corona virus, is a single, positive-stranded, RNA virus that belongs to Nidoviral type, which are responsible for the Current covid19 Pandemic [4]
Such contribution is interesting regarding to COVID-19, which causes a large disruption in the lives of sufferers and has enormous socioeconomic costs occurred in the world
Summary
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that can cause illnesses range from the common cold to much more severe illnesses like SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 [1,2,3]. Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARSCov-2), commonly known as Novel Corona virus (nCoV), is a single, positive-stranded, RNA virus that belongs to Nidoviral type, which are responsible for the Current covid Pandemic [4]. Recent research shows that SARS-CoV-2 virus and bat corona virus have 96% identical genetic sequences [1, 2]. Compared the reproduction number R0 of severe acute respiratory syndrome of H1N1 virus (1.25), SARS (2.2-3.6), the R0 of COVID-19 indicates awful potential transmission as 2.2, 3.8 and 2.68 by different researcher in the world. The larger basic reproduction number R0 the greater power of transmission rate of disease and the smaller the basic reproduction number R0 the lower the transmission rate of the disease [1, 4, 6]
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