Abstract
This work, dedicated to a mathematical description of energy transition scenarios, consists of three main parts. The first part describes modern trends and problems of the energy sector. A large number of charts reflecting the latest updates in energy are provided. The COVID-2019 pandemic’s impacts on the energy sector are also included. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the analysis of energy consumption and the structure of the world fuel and energy balance. Furthermore, a detailed description of energy-efficient technologies is given. Being important and low-carbon, hydrogen is discussed, including its advantages and disadvantages. The last part of the work describes the mathematical tool developed by the authors. The high availability of statistical data made it possible to identify parameters used in the algorithm with the least squares method and verify the tool. Performing several not complicated steps of the algorithm, the tool allows calculating the deviation of the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere from preindustrial levels in the 21st century under different scenarios. Using the suggested mathematical description, the optimal scenario that makes it possible to keep global warming at a level below 1.7 °C was found.
Highlights
Energies 2021, 14, 8360. https://Over the last 70 years, carbon dioxide emissions increased by 2.2 times causing climate change
The algorithm assumes the calculation of various scenarios of population growth and the corresponding scenarios of energy demand, based on the new paradigm of energy consumption that will be introduced in Section 4, scenarios writing for the dynamics of the structure of energy consumption by types of energy sources, the calculation of the dynamics of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the calculation of the dynamics of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere, and the calculation of changes in the global average temperature of the surface atmosphere
According to the Trinidad authors’ calculations, energyefficient technologies make itofpossible decreasegas realin energy consumption up to 50%
Summary
Over the last 70 years, carbon dioxide emissions increased by 2.2 times causing climate change. Climate change became one of the most pressing problems mankind has to face. The temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere increased by more than 1 ◦ C compared to pre-industrial levels, while the snow on the tops of mountains and poles started to melt and the level of seawater raised. Living organisms are suffering from diseases caused by a high percentage of carbon dioxide in the air. The effects of climate change are being observed in every part of the world. Droughts became more frequent in Australia, Brazil, India, the United States and other locations [1]. Many countries, including Indonesia, China, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Pakistan and others suffer from floods. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused almost two thousand deaths and significant economic damage
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