Mathematical cartographic approaches toward evaluation and forecasting of ethnic composition in the Russian regions

Abstract

This article is devoted to the study of the population's ethnic structure in regions of Russia and former RSFSR (Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic) as well as the temporal dynamics of major ethnic groups by means of mathematical and cartographic modelling. Integrated indicators are developed to estimate ethnic diversity in regions of Russia and former RSFSR (ethnic diversity index and its modification – ethnic diversity index adjusted for the ability to speak Russian), and cluster analysis is performed to offer typological classification of Russian regions based on their ethnic composition. Maps are created on the basis of the derived indicators and typological classification. Finally, the estimates of the share of major ethnic groups up to 2030 are provided.