Mathematical approach to the analysis of terrorism dynamics

Abstract

In pursuance of differing goals and ideologies, nations, religions, political groups rising against themselves have characterized human existence over the years. In recent times, such animosities have widened to the point of dehumanization and wide destruction of properties with threat and fear as strong arsenal. Terrorism has become very prevalent especially its many new forms that use drones and chemical and biological weapons. A mathematical model helps to explain a system (mutable natural occurrences such as dynamics in terrorism) by a painstaking study of different components of terrorists’ splinter cells ranging from foot soldiers, intelligent mission units, kidnappers, and suicide bombers, to make predictions about its behaviour. This work argues the use of mathematical models to study terrorism by providing insights into evolving trends. The specific objective of this study is to investigate how to improve the understanding of the policymakers on terrorism mitigation. The study adopted a mathematical modelling and theoretical design. The mathematical equations formulated were based on the underlying principles of terrorism, which include recruitment, desertion from group, counter-terrorism measures, et cetera. The models were sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations based on assumptions emanating from the literature reviewed on terrorism. Qualitative analysis and relevant numerical simulations of the model were carried out. The results illustrate new approach on which terrorism can be reduced.