Abstract
The goal of this paper is to provide a mathematical threat modeling methodology and a threat risk assessment tool that may assist security consultants at assessing the security risks in their protected systems/plants, nuclear power plants and stores of hazardous substances: explosive atmospheres and flammable and combustible gases and liquids, and so forth, and at building an appropriate risk mitigation policy. The probability of a penetration into the protected objects is estimated by combining the probability of the penetration by overcoming the security barriers with a vulnerability model. On the basis of the topographical placement of the protected objects, their security features, and the probability of the penetration, we propose a model of risk mitigation and effective decision making.
Highlights
The term physical protection of safety-critical objects represents a set of technical regime actions or organizational actions necessary to prevent the unauthorized actions performed with or in the objects of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities, power plants, transmission grids, drinking water supplies, storages of chemicals, oil pipelines and related facilities, and roads.The infrastructure of developed countries is highly vulnerable and highly interconnected
The submitted study analyzes the alternatives of the intruder penetration into the protected area by processing the data describing the detection capabilities in overcoming the transition gates and barriers or moving through the area
The solution relevance is closely related to the accuracy of the input data
Summary
The term physical protection of safety-critical objects represents a set of technical regime actions or organizational actions necessary to prevent the unauthorized actions performed with or in the objects (intrusion and sabotage) of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities, power plants, transmission grids, drinking water supplies, storages of chemicals, oil pipelines and related facilities, and roads. The aim of the study is to propose algorithms enabling the users to analyze the probability of an intruder penetration to the protected object located in the area bounded by multilevel barriers with transition gates (Figure 1). Where PE is probability of total system effectiveness, PI is probability of interruption: the overall probability of the attack detection during its duration including the critical detection point (CDP) based on the principle of early detection and the concept of critical point detection, and PN is probability of neutralization: the probability that the corresponding force can prevent the completion of the malicious act, such as the theft of nuclear material or nuclear facility sabotage [7]. The principle of early detection is as follows: to interrupt the enemy attack before the requirement for the sabotage or theft is terminated. According to our best knowledge, no paper focused on solving the specific tasks mentioned above, the scenarios Alpha, Beta, and Gamma
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