MATHEMATICAL APPROACH TO FORECAST THE ELECTRICITY CRISES IN PAKISTAN AND ITS MITIGATION

Abstract

Electricity is widely recognized as the backbone of economic success and progress, playing a vital role in driving socioeconomic development. This comprehensive study conducted an in-depth analysis of Pakistan's electricity consumption and aimed to develop a suitable model for forecasting the country's future electricity consumption (E.C.). Due to the strong positive correlation between E.C. of different sectors with Population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), multiple linear regressions were employed for the analysis of electricity consumption. To predict population and GDP different mathematical model such as linear, Exponential, Polynomial and logarithmic models were applied on population and GDP data. In order to get the best fitted model a number of goodness-of-fit tests Coefficient of Determination, Sum of Square Errors, Sums of Square Regression, Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, And F- Statistics (Adj-R2, SSE, SSR, MSE, RMSE and F Statistics) applied and got the polynomial model to be the most effective one for population and GDP. According to the goodness-of-fit test-based models, Pakistan's population is on track for steady growth, with projections reaching approximately 244428310 in 2025 and further increasing to 319825879 in 2040. This indicates significant demographic changes on the horizon. At the same time, Pakistan's GDP per capita is expected to rise, starting at 1958.3 $ in 2025 and potentially reaching 3,210.9 $ in 2040, signifying a positive trajectory towards economic development and prosperity in the country. Based on the selected models suggested by goodness of fit tests, the study throws light on the expected future electricity consumption in Pakistan. According to these projections, the expected electricity consumption of Pakistan may reach 121,121.1 GWh in 2025, 138,861.8 GWh in 2030, 157,716.8 GWh in 2035, and 177,686.3 GWh in 2040 respectively.