Mathematical and cartographic methods of atmospheric processes’ analysis

Abstract

Formulation of the problem. The urgency of the problem posed is the need to take into account the degree of intensity and quantitative study of dangerous atmospheric processes that cover large areas and cause significant economic damage to agriculture. When solving these questions it is necessary to have an objective estimation of different factors impact including weather and climate on the level of agricultural production. This will allow to assess various indicators of agro-meteorological conditions more reasonably in the estimation of the cereal harvest. Analysis of recent research and publications. The study of atmospheric processes and their effect on agricultural crops are devoted to in the works of V.V. Dokuchaev, P.I. Brоunоv, P.І. Kоlоskоv, G.Т. Sеlyaninov А.M. Аlpаtev S.А. Sаpоzhnikоvа, I.E. Buchinsky, N.B. Bova, V.A. Volevaha, V. Romushevich, Yu.І. Chirkоv, М.І. Budykо, А.R. Коnstаntіnоv, G.P. Dubinskiy. Formation of the purpose of the article. The article considers the questions of scientific research application and cartographical and mathematical methods. The following tasks are defined: to study the initial preconditions and methodological support in the study of this problem; to analyze the data of hydrometeorological service; to determine the empirical relationships of the spatial-temporal structure in the development of arid phenomena on the territory of Kharkiv region. Presentation of the main research material. In this paper, an attempt is made to use quantitative characteristics of environmentally hazardous atmospheric phenomena development for the analysis of their formation and influence on human economic activity. To do this, we used a cartographic and mathematical method of research. It consists in the fact that natural phenomena and, in particular, environmentally dangerous ones are placed on a map in the system of conditional signs and then are analyzed by methods of mathematical statistics, quantitative characteristics of the investigated phenomenon. The apparatus of mathematical statistics helps to solve probabilistic tasks of cartographic representation of natural phenomena, as well as to study various connections between natural phenomena reflected on maps, to measure and assess them. Involvement of the mathematical apparatus in the study of the cartographic image stems from the need for in-depth knowledge of the phenomena essence depicted in the maps. The study of natural phenomena without application of the map-mathematical method is considered to be one-sided since this does not take into account one of the important aspects of any study - quantitative relations and regularities. The result of the research is an analysis of statistical indicators of agricultural crops harvest and hydrometeorological conditions in Kharkiv region. Having analyzed these indicators, we determined that quantitative dependence of the crop on the number of dry days has a complex nonlinear multi-parameter appearance. At the same time, close connection between the harvest of corn and sugar beets with weather conditions was very significant, as indicated by the large correlation coefficient between them, equal to 0.87-0.90. We worked out a hypothesis about the form of functional dependence between these components. Using the mathematical modeling method to analyze the spatio-temporal structure of natural-anthropogenic phenomenon development allows us to unify the hydrometeorological characteristics. It can be used in different fields of science, in particular, in recreational geography. The apparatus of mathematical statistics helps to reliably solve the cartographic representation tasks of natural phenomena, as well as to study the versatile links between natural and anthropogenic objects, which are reflected on the maps, measure and estimate them. Conclusions. Cartographic and mathematical research method is an important component in the study of natural phenomena and processes and helps to solve probabilistic tasks of cartographic representation of natural phenomena, as well as to study the versatile relationships between natural phenomena reflected on maps, measure and quantitatively assess them.