Mathematical analysis of the global COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and Spain based on SEIRD model

Abstract

In this paper, a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics of the new infectious disease referred to as COVID-19 is employed. The model comprises five mutually exclusive compartments (classes) of human population sizes viz: susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and death, representing the human dynamics; hence, the name SEIRD model. In the model, the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria and Spain are analyzed. The period is between February 15-April 3, 2020 for Spain, and February 27-April 3, 2020, for Nigeria. The analysis of the population data is based on the concerned SEIRD model. Graphical representations of the obtained results are presented. A connection between the contact rate of the infection and the compartmental human population sizes subject to the COVID-19 analysis is revealed. It shows that a decrease in the contact rate of the ‘susceptible and the infected’ classes is a considerable condition leading to a decline in 'the exposed, infected, and death' cases. This decrease is attributed to the control of the possible infecting contacts. The spread patterns for the two considered cases are the same. A lot of measures are needed to be put in place to ensure a corresponding increase in the 'recovered class.' The COVID-19 outbreak would remain global and endemic if the infecting contact rate is not well controlled. Thus, adherence to strict public and government policies such as social distancing and isolation is a plausible requirement. For other aspects of epidemiology with related features, this strategy is highly recommended for implementation.