Abstract
Abstract This paper reports on a scenario analysis of material and energy flows through the UK iron and steel sector for the period from 1994 to 2019. Following an earlier paper looking at historical flows through the sector, the authors extrapolate a set of hypothetical scenarios for the future based on varying assumptions about critical parameters. These parameters include: the demand for steel goods, technological improvements within steel production processes, and changes in the ratio of primary (basic oxygen furnace) to secondary (electric arc furnace) steel production. The hypothetical scenarios are then used to forecast a range of possible values for the exergy consumption associated with the UK steel sector for the period between 1994 and 2019. The results indicate that exergy consumption from steel is likely to fall by 15–70% of 1994 levels by 2019. Technological improvement alone does not result in significant reductions.
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