Mass shootings and their asymmetric effect on societal armament

Abstract

Mixed evidence has been found for a positive relationship between mass shootings and civilian armament. This study suggests that the causal effect of mass shootings on subsequent societal gun acquisition is non-linear and asymmetric. Different shootings spur pathways that in turn, have variant impacts on civilian armament. Through utilization of directed acyclic graph (DAG) software, several causal models featuring pathways and mechanisms are presented. All three pathways feature a latent variable of fear, and are endogenous to a historical period marked by a discourse of fear that became embedded in U.S. political discourse after the 9/11 attacks. Along with an overview of potential confounding factors, analysis of data on background checks from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (1999–2016) lends support to the argument.