Mass movement; the research frontier and beyond: a geomorphological approach

Abstract

The instructions given to the authors of this special issue were: 'Within the realm of your speciality, provide a brief perspective of the paradigms in use which contribute to the position of the research frontier. Then 'star-gaze7 Where are we going? Where do we need to go? What will be the focus of the speciality in the future and what techniques etc., will help expand the research fron tier? Be outrageous!! It is proposed to meet this request by discussing for each subject: reality what do we do now? certainty m what will we do in the near future? and speculation what may happen in the twenty-first century? Following Dury (1978 ), reality is the current geomorphological capital on which we may build, certainty means what will happen if present trends fulfill their promise and speculation is the prospect for the future. The value of that depends on the degree to which the mind is unfettered from what is probable to what is possible. In the conclusion it is intended to treat the brief with ambiguity and express a degree of outrage. The field discussed is mass movement but this will be limited to selected geomorphological aspects of the subject. This is an interdisciplinary field which greatly benefits from cooperation between geology, geomorphology, geophysics, hydrology and soil mechanics. This also means that it is easy to possess an imperfect understanding of the individual disciplines. In the present case, for example, a degree of uncertainty about advanced soil mechanics, groundwater hydrology and geophysics is acknowledged. In consequence, the treatment of soil properties and slope stability analysis is limited.